Maybe need to move away from point forecasts to scenarios (a little like Shell used to do with their oil forecast). This sounds good but you are always likely to need “a number” to insert into the financial forecast for IR purposes.
My view is along those lines - rather than specific, point forecasts on compromise product profiles (something sharp for something very vague), lots of forecasts for specific profiles, to compare with each other...
I think that’s fine to do internally-the challenge will always be from Finance in reconciling the messy reality with whatever shiny number they are obliged to produce.
Maybe need to move away from point forecasts to scenarios (a little like Shell used to do with their oil forecast). This sounds good but you are always likely to need “a number” to insert into the financial forecast for IR purposes.
My view is along those lines - rather than specific, point forecasts on compromise product profiles (something sharp for something very vague), lots of forecasts for specific profiles, to compare with each other...
I think that’s fine to do internally-the challenge will always be from Finance in reconciling the messy reality with whatever shiny number they are obliged to produce.